FK Crvena Zvezda vs IMT Novi Beograd — Super Liga 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 39+ matches
FK Crvena Zvezda70%
IMT Novi Beograd13%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FK Crvena Zvezda creates 155% more chances
Season form · 41 home / 39 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over68
- Under32
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FK Crvena Zvezda ↓
Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 3.29, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches
IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.74 · 39 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FK Crvena Zvezda attack 3.29 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.52
IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.21 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 70%?"
FK Crvena Zvezda at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 70% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
IMT Novi Beograd substitutes
FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Partizan
OFK Beograd
Radnicki 1923
Vojvodina
Mladost Lucani
TSC Backa Topola
Novi Pazar
CukarickiIMT Novi Beograd
Železničar Pančevo
Napredak
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Radnicki NIS
Tekstilac Odžaci
Jedinstvo UbIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
FK Crvena Zvezda host IMT Novi Beograd on Sunday, 2 March 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the Super Liga 2024/2025 season.
FK Crvena Zvezda 4 – 0 IMT Novi Beograd
FK Crvena Zvezda beat IMT Novi Beograd 4-0 in Super Liga on March 2, 2025.
Goals: J. Šljivić (20'), M. Jevtić (46' o.g.), N. Radonjić (70'), Bruno Duarte (81').
FK Crvena Zvezda controlled possession (74%) and registered 21 shots to 5.
The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mitić in Beograd.