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III. Kerületi TUE vs Csornai SE — NB III - Northwest 2019

III. Kerületi TUE
III. Kerületi TUE
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Csornai SE
Csornai SE
10/15/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 11Szőnyi úti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

III. Kerületi TUE64%
×Draw19%
Csornai SE16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

III. Kerületi TUE
2.23
Csornai SE
1.03

III. Kerületi TUE creates 117% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

III. Kerületi TUE
2.13
Csornai SE
0.93

allows per match

III. Kerületi TUE
1.13
Csornai SE
2.33

finishing

III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par
Csornai SE+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

III. Kerületi TUE ↓

Csornai SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

III. Kerületi TUE or draw
84%
III. Kerületi TUE or Csornai SE
81%
Draw or Csornai SE
36%

Winning margin

III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+
41%
Csornai SE wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals
89%
III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals
65%
III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals
38%
Csornai SE 1+ goals
64%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
28%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)
80%
Csornai SE (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

III. Kerületi TUE at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Csornai SE away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

III. Kerületi TUE attack 2.13 + Csornai SE defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.23

Csornai SE attack 0.93 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

III. Kerületi TUE scores more
64%
level
19%
Csornai SE scores more
16%

III. Kerületi TUE at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "III. Kerületi TUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: III. Kerületi TUE 5–0 Csornai SE

III. Kerületi TUE beat Csornai SE 5-0 in NB III - Northwest on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Szőnyi úti Stadion in Budapest.