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Csornai SE vs III. Kerületi TUE — NB III - Northwest 2019

Csornai SE
Csornai SE
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
III. Kerületi TUE
III. Kerületi TUE
4/28/2024NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 26Kocsis István Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Csornai SE26%
×Draw23%
III. Kerületi TUE50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csornai SE
1.22
III. Kerületi TUE
1.77

III. Kerületi TUE creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Csornai SE
1.27
III. Kerületi TUE
1.67

allows per match

Csornai SE
1.87
III. Kerületi TUE
1.17

finishing

Csornai SE+0.00on par
III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csornai SE ↓

III. Kerületi TUE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Csornai SE or draw
50%
Csornai SE or III. Kerületi TUE
77%
Draw or III. Kerületi TUE
74%

Winning margin

Csornai SE wins by 2+
11%
III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Csornai SE 1+ goals
70%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
34%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
12%
III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals
83%
III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals
53%
III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Csornai SE (draw refunded)
34%
III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csornai SE at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

III. Kerületi TUE away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csornai SE attack 1.27 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

III. Kerületi TUE attack 1.67 + Csornai SE defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Csornai SE scores more
26%
level
23%
III. Kerületi TUE scores more
50%

III. Kerületi TUE at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "III. Kerületi TUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Csornai SE 2–3 III. Kerületi TUE

III. Kerületi TUE beat Csornai SE 3-2 in NB III - Northwest on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Kocsis István Városi Sporttelep in Csorna.