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Csornai SE vs III. Kerületi TUE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Csornai SE
Csornai SE
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
III. Kerületi TUE
III. Kerületi TUE
5/21/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 38Kocsis István Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Csornai SE20%
×Draw22%
III. Kerületi TUE59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csornai SE
1.04
III. Kerületi TUE
1.96

III. Kerületi TUE creates 88% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 48 away

creates per match

Csornai SE
1.21
III. Kerületi TUE
2.02

allows per match

Csornai SE
1.89
III. Kerületi TUE
0.88

finishing

Csornai SE+0.00on par
III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csornai SE ↓

III. Kerületi TUE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Csornai SE or draw
41%
Csornai SE or III. Kerületi TUE
78%
Draw or III. Kerületi TUE
80%

Winning margin

Csornai SE wins by 2+
7%
III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Csornai SE 1+ goals
65%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
28%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
9%
III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals
86%
III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals
58%
III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Csornai SE (draw refunded)
25%
III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csornai SE at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

III. Kerületi TUE away — creates 2.02, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csornai SE attack 1.21 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

III. Kerületi TUE attack 2.02 + Csornai SE defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Csornai SE scores more
20%
level
22%
III. Kerületi TUE scores more
59%

III. Kerületi TUE at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "III. Kerületi TUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Csornai SE 1–2 III. Kerületi TUE

III. Kerületi TUE beat Csornai SE 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Kocsis István Városi Sporttelep in Csorna.