IFK Varnamo 1–3 IFK Norrkoping: Result & Stats

IFK Varnamo

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

IFK Norrkoping

K. Bilalovic 47'

C. Nyman 51'

S. Jorgensen 33', 30'

4/27/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 6Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

IFK Varnamo40%

×Draw25%

IFK Norrkoping35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK VarnamoExpected goals in this matchIFK Norrkoping

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.36

IFK Varnamo

1.46

IFK Norrkoping

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

1.09

creates per match

1.27

1.45

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

IFK Varnamo

1.09

IFK Norrkoping

1.27

allows per match

IFK Varnamo

1.45

IFK Norrkoping

1.83

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

IFK Varnamo-0.09on par

IFK Norrkoping+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

IFK Norrkoping →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw

65%

IFK Varnamo or IFK Norrkoping

75%

Draw or IFK Norrkoping

60%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

19%

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

77%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

43%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

18%

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

74%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

39%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

53%

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 18 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.83 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.09 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.46

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.27 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more

40%

level

25%

IFK Norrkoping scores more

35%

IFK Varnamo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

S. Jorgensen

IFK Norrkoping · M

8.9

Match Events

11'

Axel Björnström

30'

S. Jorgensen↳ T. Prica

32'

Ísak Andri Sigurgeirsson

33'

S. Jorgensen↳ I. Sigurgeirsson

39'

Luke Le Roux

46'

J. Kalu← C. Johansson

46'

A. Lohikangas← A. Bjornstrom

46'

K. Bilalovic← E. Grozdanic

47'

K. Bilalovic↳ H. Andersson

51'

C. Nyman↳ I. Sigurgeirsson

60'

Hugo Andersson

62'

Arnór Traustason

63'

S. Thern← F. Junior Adjei

68'

A. Zeljkovic←

75'

D. Karlsson← T. Prica

75'

I. Lushaku← A. Fransson

88'

A. Andersson← A. Traustason

90+3'

Max Watson

90+1'

A. Sogaard← S. Jorgensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKIFK

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots10

1.44Expected Goals (xG)1.12

13Corners3

15Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots10

5On Target5

3Off Target3

6Blocked2

9Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

397Total Passes342

326Accurate Passes256

82%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2