IFK Norrkoping 1–0 IFK Varnamo: Result & Stats

IFK Norrkoping

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

IFK Varnamo

T. Sandberg 77'

1/19/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Platinumcars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

IFK Norrkoping66%

×Draw23%

IFK Varnamo12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK NorrkopingExpected goals in this matchIFK Varnamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.57

IFK Norrkoping

1.74

IFK Varnamo

0.57

IFK Norrkoping creates 205% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

2.10

creates per match

0.75

0.40

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping

2.10

IFK Varnamo

0.75

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping

0.40

IFK Varnamo

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

IFK Varnamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw

88%

IFK Norrkoping or IFK Varnamo

77%

Draw or IFK Varnamo

34%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

38%

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

82%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

52%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

25%

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

43%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

11%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

85%

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 2.10 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.74

IFK Varnamo attack 0.75 + IFK Norrkoping defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more

66%

level

23%

IFK Varnamo scores more

12%

IFK Norrkoping at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

77'

T. Sandberg

IFK3-4-2-1

IFK4-2-3-1

9

18

28

10

22

21

20

5

16

2

39

91

23

19

14

34

37

28

2

22

9

20

Manager: Martin Falk

IFK Norrkoping substitutes

38Sandberg24Eriksson4Sogaard8Jansson17Shabani7Ortmark21Ceesay3Baggesen35RawufuSigurgeirsson

Manager: Arne Sandstø

IFK Varnamo substitutes

33Mikhail17Bozicevic7Johansson32BilalovicEdgrenFreijSinanov

Match Recap: IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo

IFK Norrkoping beat IFK Varnamo 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 19, 2025.

Goals: T. Sandberg (77').

The match was played at Platinumcars Arena in Norrköping.

IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo