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IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping — Allsvenskan 2026

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
S. Kotto 86'
A. Traustason 59'
C. Nyman 25'
10/27/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 28Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

IFK Varnamo40%
×Draw25%
IFK Norrkoping35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.46
IFK Norrkoping
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.09
IFK Norrkoping
1.27

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.45
IFK Norrkoping
1.83

finishing

IFK Varnamo-0.09on par
IFK Norrkoping+0.14scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

IFK Norrkoping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
65%
IFK Varnamo or IFK Norrkoping
75%
Draw or IFK Norrkoping
60%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
19%
IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
77%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
43%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
18%
IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
74%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
39%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
53%
IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 18 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.83 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.09 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.46

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.27 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
40%
level
25%
IFK Norrkoping scores more
35%

IFK Varnamo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
A. TraustasonIFK NorrkopingIFK Norrkoping · M
8.3

Match Events

25'
C. Nyman↳ M. Neffati
34'
Luke Le Roux
46'
T. Sandberg← J. Ortmark
59'
A. Traustason↳ M. Neffati
61'
A. Zeljkovic← F. Adjei
62'
J. Kalu← A. Lohikangas
77'
David Moberg Karlsson
78'
Michael Steinwender
79'
M. Bustos← S. Thern
79'
Carl Johansson← V. Larsson
79'
J. Voelkerling Persson← G. Engvall
79'
T. Prica← C. Nyman
79'
C. Björk← M. Neffati
85'
S. Bolma← D. Moberg Karlsson
86'
S. Kotto↳ E. Grozdanic
90+8'
Ture Sandberg
90'
Tim Prica
90+1'
A. Eriksson← V. Hammershøy-Mistrati

Possession

63%IFK

Shots

14IFK

Pass accuracy

53%IFK

Statistics

IFKIFK
Overview
63%Possession37%
14Total Shots6
1.00Expected Goals (xG)1.18
10Corners1
12Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots6
4On Target2
6Off Target2
4Blocked2
9Inside Box6
5Outside Box0
Passing
63%Possession37%
517Total Passes309
421Accurate Passes219
81%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides4

Allsvenskan: IFK Varnamo 1–2 IFK Norrkoping

IFK Norrkoping beat IFK Varnamo 2-1 in Allsvenskan on October 27, 2024.

Goals: C. Nyman (25'), A. Traustason (59'), S. Kotto (86').

IFK Varnamo controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Värnamo.