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IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg — Allsvenskan 2026

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
M. Fenger 37'
4/13/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 3Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

IFK Varnamo37%
×Draw26%
IFK Goteborg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.33
IFK Goteborg
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.09
IFK Goteborg
1.23

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.45
IFK Goteborg
1.56

finishing

IFK Varnamo-0.09on par
IFK Goteborg-0.04on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

IFK Goteborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
63%
IFK Varnamo or IFK Goteborg
74%
Draw or IFK Goteborg
63%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
16%
IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
74%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
38%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
15%
IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
74%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
39%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
50%
IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 18 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.09 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

IFK Goteborg attack 1.23 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
37%
level
26%
IFK Goteborg scores more
37%

IFK Varnamo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. FengerIFK GoteborgIFK Goteborg · F
7.7

Match Events

23'
Jonas Bager
37'
M. Fenger↳ R. Lundqvist
45+1'
Simon Thern
48'
Ramon Pascal Lundqvist
60'
F. Junior Adjei← A. Lohikangas
60'
K. Bilalovic← J. Kalu
60'
A. Erlingmark← J. Bager
60'
E. Markovic← S. Clemmensen
60'
K. Thordarson← I. Jagne
63'
Johan Rapp
72'
A. Trondsen← N. Tolf
78'
A. Carlen← D. Kruse
80'
H. Andersson← J. Rapp
80'
A. Zeljkovic← C. Johansson
80'
F. Winsth← V. Larsson

Possession

54%IFK

Shots

11IFK

Pass accuracy

50%IFK

Statistics

IFKIFK
Overview
54%Possession46%
11Total Shots8
0.40Expected Goals (xG)0.72
4Corners3
18Fouls16
Shots
11Total Shots8
3On Target3
3Off Target4
5Blocked1
7Inside Box6
4Outside Box2
Passing
54%Possession46%
439Total Passes363
321Accurate Passes263
73%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Allsvenskan: IFK Varnamo 0–1 IFK Goteborg

IFK Goteborg beat IFK Varnamo 1-0 in Allsvenskan on April 13, 2025.

Goals: M. Fenger (37').

IFK Varnamo controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Varnamo.