IFK Varnamo 3–1 IFK Goteborg: Result & Stats

IFK Varnamo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

IFK Goteborg

A. Ademi 77'

O. Johansson 63'

G. Engvall 52'

E. Salomonsson 19'

10/23/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 27Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

IFK Varnamo37%

×Draw26%

IFK Goteborg37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK VarnamoExpected goals in this matchIFK Goteborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.34

IFK Varnamo

1.33

IFK Goteborg

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

1.09

creates per match

1.23

1.45

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

IFK Varnamo

1.09

IFK Goteborg

1.23

allows per match

IFK Varnamo

1.45

IFK Goteborg

1.56

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

IFK Varnamo-0.09on par

IFK Goteborg-0.04on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

IFK Goteborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw

63%

IFK Varnamo or IFK Goteborg

74%

Draw or IFK Goteborg

63%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

16%

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

74%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

38%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

15%

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

74%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

39%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

50%

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 18 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.09 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

IFK Goteborg attack 1.23 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more

37%

level

26%

IFK Goteborg scores more

37%

IFK Varnamo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

G. Engvall

IFK Varnamo · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

E. Salomonsson↳ T. Santos

26'

Gustav Svensson

32'

Victor Eriksson

33'

Lucas Kåhed

52'

G. Engvall↳ V. Larsson

63'

O. Johansson

70'

S. Eriksson← L. Kåhed

71'

G. Norlin← A. Selmani

77'

A. Ademi↳ G. Engvall

83'

A. Salaou← A. Carlén

84'

K. Bilalovic← A. Ademi

84'

F. Winsth← O. Johansson

90'

M. Bustos← G. Engvall

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKIFK

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots14

1.13Expected Goals (xG)0.97

7Corners4

7Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots14

7On Target1

3Off Target3

4Blocked10

6Inside Box10

8Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

645Total Passes396

555Accurate Passes314

86%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1