Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo — Allsvenskan 2026

IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
N. Tolf 45'
8/30/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 22Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

IFK Goteborg47%
×Draw24%
IFK Varnamo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Goteborg
1.66
IFK Varnamo
1.25

IFK Goteborg creates 33% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

IFK Goteborg
1.47
IFK Varnamo
1.19

allows per match

IFK Goteborg
1.30
IFK Varnamo
1.84

finishing

IFK Goteborg-0.28scores less
IFK Varnamo+0.06on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

IFK Varnamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw
71%
IFK Goteborg or IFK Varnamo
76%
Draw or IFK Varnamo
53%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
25%
IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
81%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
49%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
23%
IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
71%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
36%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
62%
IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 26 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.84 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.47 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.66

IFK Varnamo attack 1.19 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more
47%
level
24%
IFK Varnamo scores more
29%

IFK Goteborg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
E. BishesariIFK GoteborgIFK Goteborg · G
8.9

Match Events

45'
N. Tolf↳ D. Kruse
62'
F. Eriksson← T. Santos
68'
P. Cibicki← N. Shamoun
69'
A. Zeljkovic← K. Meriluoto
71'
Victor Larsson
72'
L. Carlstrand← S. Alioum
73'
M. Alsalkhadi← S. Thern
82'
R. Yeboah← S. Clemmensen
82'
I. Jagne← K. Thordarson
84'
Noah Tolf
90'
J. Rapp← O. Liimatta

Possession

57%IFK

Shots

27IFK

Pass accuracy

51%IFK

Statistics

IFKIFK
Overview
57%Possession43%
27Total Shots17
2.96Expected Goals (xG)1.47
9Corners4
8Fouls9
Shots
27Total Shots17
9On Target8
12Off Target9
6Blocked0
13Inside Box9
14Outside Box8
Passing
57%Possession43%
499Total Passes375
389Accurate Passes277
78%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
8Saves7
Discipline
8Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Allsvenskan: IFK Goteborg 1–0 IFK Varnamo

IFK Goteborg beat IFK Varnamo 1-0 in Allsvenskan on August 30, 2025.

Goals: N. Tolf (45').

IFK Goteborg controlled possession (57%) and registered 27 shots to 17.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Gothenburg.