IFK Varnamo 0–0 IF Elfsborg: Result & Stats

IFK Varnamo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

IF Elfsborg

11/10/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 30Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

IFK Varnamo33%

×Draw26%

IF Elfsborg41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK VarnamoExpected goals in this matchIF Elfsborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.42

IFK Varnamo

1.23

IF Elfsborg

1.42

IF Elfsborg creates 15% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 127 away

1.02

creates per match

1.38

1.46

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

IFK Varnamo

1.02

IF Elfsborg

1.38

allows per match

IFK Varnamo

1.46

IF Elfsborg

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

IF Elfsborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw

59%

IFK Varnamo or IF Elfsborg

74%

Draw or IF Elfsborg

67%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

14%

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

71%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

35%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

13%

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals

76%

IF Elfsborg 2+ goals

41%

IF Elfsborg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

44%

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 61 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.45 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.02 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

IF Elfsborg attack 1.38 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more

33%

level

26%

IF Elfsborg scores more

41%

IF Elfsborg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff