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IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo — Allsvenskan 2026

IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
8/11/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 19Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

IF Elfsborg44%
×Draw25%
IFK Varnamo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Elfsborg
1.59
IFK Varnamo
1.31

IF Elfsborg creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

IF Elfsborg
1.43
IFK Varnamo
1.22

allows per match

IF Elfsborg
1.41
IFK Varnamo
1.76

finishing

IF Elfsborg-0.05on par
IFK Varnamo+0.49scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Elfsborg ↓

IFK Varnamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

IF Elfsborg or draw
68%
IF Elfsborg or IFK Varnamo
75%
Draw or IFK Varnamo
56%

Winning margin

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
22%
IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
80%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
47%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
21%
IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
73%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
38%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
58%
IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Elfsborg at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 13 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.76 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Elfsborg attack 1.43 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.59

IFK Varnamo attack 1.22 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IF Elfsborg scores more
44%
level
25%
IFK Varnamo scores more
32%

IF Elfsborg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: IF Elfsborg 2–2 IFK Varnamo

IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo drew 2-2 in Allsvenskan on August 11, 2025.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Borås.