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IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo — Friendlies Clubs 2026

IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
CANC
12:00
IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
3/12/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

IF Elfsborg49%
×Draw24%
IFK Varnamo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Elfsborg
1.65
IFK Varnamo
1.13

IF Elfsborg creates 46% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

IF Elfsborg
1.92
IFK Varnamo
0.75

allows per match

IF Elfsborg
1.50
IFK Varnamo
1.38

finishing

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par
IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Elfsborg ↓

IFK Varnamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

IF Elfsborg or draw
74%
IF Elfsborg or IFK Varnamo
76%
Draw or IFK Varnamo
51%

Winning margin

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
26%
IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
81%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
49%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
23%
IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
68%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
31%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
65%
IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Elfsborg at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Elfsborg attack 1.92 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.65

IFK Varnamo attack 0.75 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

IF Elfsborg scores more
49%
level
24%
IFK Varnamo scores more
26%

IF Elfsborg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: IF Elfsborg host IFK Varnamo

March 12, 2024: IF Elfsborg take on IFK Varnamo in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

IF Elfsborg host IFK Varnamo at Borås Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.