IFK Varnamo 3–2 Helsingborg: Result & Stats

IFK Varnamo

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Helsingborg

M. Antonsson 90+5', 35', 12'

A. Muhsin 54', 41'

9/5/2022

Allsvenskan · Round 21Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

IFK Varnamo44%

×Draw25%

Helsingborg31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK VarnamoExpected goals in this matchHelsingborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.24

IFK Varnamo

1.52

Helsingborg

1.24

IFK Varnamo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 46 away

1.02

creates per match

1.02

1.46

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

IFK Varnamo

1.02

Helsingborg

1.02

allows per match

IFK Varnamo

1.46

Helsingborg

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Helsingborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Helsingborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw

69%

IFK Varnamo or Helsingborg

75%

Draw or Helsingborg

56%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

22%

Helsingborg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

78%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

45%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

20%

Helsingborg 1+ goals

71%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

35%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

58%

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 61 matches

Helsingborg away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.02 + Helsingborg defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.52

Helsingborg attack 1.02 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more

44%

level

25%

Helsingborg scores more

31%

IFK Varnamo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

O. Johansson

IFK Varnamo · F

8.9

Match Events

12'

M. Antonsson↳ O. Johansson

35'

M. Antonsson

41'

A. Muhsin↳ R. Wiedesheim-Paul

46'

W. Loeper← A. Kabashi

48'

Wenderson

54'

A. Muhsin↳ W. Loeper

60'

Netinho← V. Larsson

82'

Diego Fumaça← A. Faltsetas

85'

E. Bećirović← A. Zeljkovic

88'

Diego Fumaça

90+1'

Lamaur Neto

90'

R. Jönsson← A. Muhsin

90+5'

M. Antonsson↳ O. Johansson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKHelsingborg

Overview

51%Possession49%

16Total Shots22

10Corners4

9Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots22

6On Target6

5Off Target8

5Blocked8

11Inside Box15

5Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

409Total Passes394

319Accurate Passes301

78%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0