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IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg — Superettan 2026

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Helsingborg
Helsingborg
J. Stevens 86'
R. Dzabic 66'
C. Moses 50'
W. Loeper 22'
11/6/2021SuperettanSuperettan · Round 28Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

IFK Varnamo38%
×Draw26%
Helsingborg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.35
Helsingborg
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 81 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.32
Helsingborg
1.47

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.11
Helsingborg
1.37

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
Helsingborg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Helsingborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
64%
IFK Varnamo or Helsingborg
74%
Draw or Helsingborg
62%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
17%
Helsingborg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
74%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
39%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
15%
Helsingborg 1+ goals
72%
Helsingborg 2+ goals
37%
Helsingborg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
52%
Helsingborg (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Helsingborg away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.37 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.32 + Helsingborg defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Helsingborg attack 1.47 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
38%
level
26%
Helsingborg scores more
36%

IFK Varnamo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Oscar Uddenas
22'
W. Loeper
48'
Wenderson
50'
C. Moses
59'
R. Dzabic← O. Uddenäs
60'
C. Vindehall← A. Magashy
66'
R. Dzabic
74'
J. Stevens← O. Johansson
74'
A. Landgren← V. Lundberg
74'
R. Karjalainen← D. Olsson
82'
F. Winsth← C. Moses
86'
J. Stevens

Statistics

IFKHelsingborg
Overview
1Corners11
Discipline
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Superettan: IFK Varnamo 3–1 Helsingborg

IFK Varnamo beat Helsingborg 3-1 in Superettan on November 6, 2021.

Goals: W. Loeper (22'), C. Moses (50'), R. Dzabic (66'), J. Stevens (86').

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Värnamo.