Helsingborg 1–4 IFK Varnamo: Result & Stats

Helsingborg

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

IFK Varnamo

5/21/2022

Allsvenskan · Round 9Olympia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Helsingborg37%

×Draw27%

IFK Varnamo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HelsingborgExpected goals in this matchIFK Varnamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.27

Helsingborg

1.28

IFK Varnamo

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 61 away

0.87

creates per match

1.28

1.26

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Helsingborg

0.87

IFK Varnamo

1.28

allows per match

Helsingborg

1.26

IFK Varnamo

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Helsingborg+0.00on par

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helsingborg ↓

IFK Varnamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Helsingborg or draw

64%

Helsingborg or IFK Varnamo

73%

Draw or IFK Varnamo

63%

Winning margin

Helsingborg wins by 2+

16%

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Helsingborg 1+ goals

72%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

37%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

14%

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

72%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

36%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

50%

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helsingborg at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.69 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helsingborg attack 0.87 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.28

IFK Varnamo attack 1.28 + Helsingborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Helsingborg scores more

37%

level

27%

IFK Varnamo scores more

36%

Helsingborg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Helsingborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff