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IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm — Allsvenskan 2026

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
E. Grozdanic 80'
J. Hove 87'
M. Thychosen 42'
4/24/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 5Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

IFK Varnamo32%
×Draw27%
AIK Stockholm42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.15
AIK Stockholm
1.36

AIK Stockholm creates 18% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 128 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.02
AIK Stockholm
1.27

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.46
AIK Stockholm
1.28

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

AIK Stockholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
58%
IFK Varnamo or AIK Stockholm
73%
Draw or AIK Stockholm
68%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
13%
AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
68%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
32%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
11%
AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
74%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
39%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
43%
AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 61 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.02 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.15

AIK Stockholm attack 1.27 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
32%
level
27%
AIK Stockholm scores more
42%

AIK Stockholm at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
M. ThychosenAIK StockholmAIK Stockholm · M
8.2

Match Events

34'
Dino Beširović
42'
M. Thychosen↳ D. Besirovic
60'
J. Uronen← D. Besirovic
60'
J. Hove← V. Andersson
60'
J. Guidetti← A. Kakoullis
69'
K. Bilalovic← J. Kalu
69'
Wenderson← L. Le Roux
80'
E. Grozdanic↳ S. Thern
82'
A. Zeljkovic← C. Johansson
82'
A. Lohikangas← A. Bjornstrom
83'
V. Larsson← M. Alsalkhadi
84'
K. Karlsson← A. Csongvai
86'
A. Fesshaie← B. Celina
87'
J. Hove↳ M. Thychosen

Possession

57%IFK

Shots

12IFK

Pass accuracy

53%IFK

Statistics

IFKAIK
Overview
57%Possession43%
12Total Shots9
7Corners7
8Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots9
2On Target3
2Off Target4
8Blocked2
2Inside Box7
10Outside Box2
Passing
57%Possession43%
466Total Passes341
345Accurate Passes222
74%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm

AIK Stockholm beat IFK Varnamo 2-1 in Allsvenskan on April 24, 2025.

Goals: M. Thychosen (42'), E. Grozdanic (80'), J. Hove (87').

IFK Varnamo controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Varnamo.