Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm — Allsvenskan 2018

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
8/31/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 21Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

IFK Varnamo32%
×Draw27%
AIK Stockholm42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.16
AIK Stockholm
1.37

AIK Stockholm creates 18% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 127 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.02
AIK Stockholm
1.28

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.46
AIK Stockholm
1.29

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

AIK Stockholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
58%
IFK Varnamo or AIK Stockholm
73%
Draw or AIK Stockholm
68%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
13%
AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
69%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
32%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
11%
AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
75%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
40%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
43%
AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 61 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.29 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.02 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

AIK Stockholm attack 1.28 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
32%
level
27%
AIK Stockholm scores more
42%

AIK Stockholm at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: IFK Varnamo 0–1 AIK Stockholm

AIK Stockholm beat IFK Varnamo 1-0 in Allsvenskan on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Värnamo.