AIK Stockholm 2–3 IFK Varnamo: Result & Stats

AIK Stockholm

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

IFK Varnamo

E. Flataker 82', 62'

M. Alsalkhadi 27'

O. Liimatta 19'

R. Mohammed 15'

10/5/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 26Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

AIK Stockholm49%

×Draw24%

IFK Varnamo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK StockholmExpected goals in this matchIFK Varnamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.14

AIK Stockholm

1.66

IFK Varnamo

1.14

AIK Stockholm creates 46% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.52

creates per match

1.21

1.06

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

AIK Stockholm

1.52

IFK Varnamo

1.21

allows per match

AIK Stockholm

1.06

IFK Varnamo

1.79

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.46scores more than expected

finishing

AIK Stockholm-0.22scores less

IFK Varnamo+0.46scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

IFK Varnamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw

74%

AIK Stockholm or IFK Varnamo

76%

Draw or IFK Varnamo

51%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

26%

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

81%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

49%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

23%

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

68%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

32%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

65%

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.06 · 10 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.52 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.66

IFK Varnamo attack 1.21 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more

49%

level

24%

IFK Varnamo scores more

26%

AIK Stockholm at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

O. Liimatta

IFK Varnamo · F

8.5

Match Events

15'

R. Mohammed↳ O. Liimatta

18'

T. Ayari← Z. Yohanna

19'

O. Liimatta↳ A. Bjornstrom

27'

M. Alsalkhadi↳ A. Bjornstrom

32'

Anton Salétros

36'

E. Flataker← Y. Geiger

46'

J. Hove← K. Filling

52'

K. Meriluoto← N. Shamoun

58'

Thomas Isherwood

62'

E. Flataker↳ B. Celina

69'

A. Ali← F. Nissen

69'

A. Kouame←

74'

S. Thern← M. Alsalkhadi

82'

E. Flataker↳ D. Besirovic

86'

M. Antonsson← C. Johansson

86'

A. Kujundzic← O. Liimatta

87'

Dino Beširović

90+6'

Bersant Celina

90+7'

Kent-Are Antonsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AIKIFK

Overview

44%Possession56%

16Total Shots17

1.92Expected Goals (xG)1.45

9Corners3

16Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots17

3On Target4

6Off Target5

7Blocked8

9Inside Box10

7Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

372Total Passes499

288Accurate Passes418

77%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls9

4Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1