IFK Norrkoping 0–1 IF Brommapojkarna

IFK Norrkoping

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

IF Brommapojkarna

D. Irandust 88'

7/7/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 14Platinumcars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

IFK Norrkoping39%

×Draw25%

IF Brommapojkarna36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK NorrkopingExpected goals in this matchIF Brommapojkarna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.42

IFK Norrkoping

1.47

IF Brommapojkarna

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 27 away

1.52

creates per match

1.35

1.48

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.52

IF Brommapojkarna

1.35

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.48

IF Brommapojkarna

1.42

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

IFK Norrkoping-0.13scores less

IF Brommapojkarna+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw

64%

IFK Norrkoping or IF Brommapojkarna

75%

Draw or IF Brommapojkarna

61%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

18%

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

77%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

43%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

18%

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

76%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

41%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

51%

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.48 · 18 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.42 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.52 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.47

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.35 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more

39%

level

25%

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

36%

IFK Norrkoping at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

D. Irandust

IF Brommapojkarna · F

7.9

Match Events

52'

D. Irandust← A. Kurochkin

61'

Kevin Höög Jansson

63'

Eric Björkander

69'

Kojo Peprah Oppong

74'

S. Jorgensen← D. Karlsson

77'

H. Karlsson← O. Cotton

77'

E. Alladoh← A. Jakobsen

85'

T. Prica← I. Lushaku

86'

W. Odefalk← L. Arrhov

88'

D. Irandust↳ A. Timossi

89'

A. Bronner← A. Traustason

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKIF

Overview

66%Possession34%

15Total Shots15

0.79Expected Goals (xG)1.30

9Corners4

9Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots15

3On Target5

5Off Target5

7Blocked5

9Inside Box10

6Outside Box5

Passing

66%Possession34%

589Total Passes305

501Accurate Passes212

85%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0