IF Brommapojkarna 2–1 IFK Norrkoping

IF Brommapojkarna

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

IFK Norrkoping

N. Vasić 45+4', 5'

C. Nyman 24'

5/19/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 10Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna41%

×Draw25%

IFK Norrkoping35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF BrommapojkarnaExpected goals in this matchIFK Norrkoping

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.40

IF Brommapojkarna

1.54

IFK Norrkoping

1.40

IF Brommapojkarna creates 10% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

1.24

creates per match

1.27

1.53

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.24

IFK Norrkoping

1.27

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.53

IFK Norrkoping

1.83

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.12scores more

IFK Norrkoping+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

IFK Norrkoping →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw

65%

IF Brommapojkarna or IFK Norrkoping

75%

Draw or IFK Norrkoping

59%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

20%

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

79%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

45%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

20%

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

75%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

41%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

54%

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 25 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.83 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.24 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.27 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

41%

level

25%

IFK Norrkoping scores more

35%

IF Brommapojkarna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

N. Vasić

IF Brommapojkarna · F

9.0

Match Events

5'

N. Vasić↳ F. Christensen

24'

C. Nyman

45+1'

K. Barslund← A. Calisir

45+4'

N. Vasić↳ L. Fritzson

51'

Christoffer Nyman

58'

R. Örqvist← W. Odefalk

58'

L. Žuta← T. Waker

64'

T. Prica← A. Traustason

64'

I. Lushaku← Jesper Ceesay

72'

Kaare Barslund

72'

V. Hammershøy-Mistrati← Í. Sigurgeirsson

72'

C. Björk← L. Shabani

83'

P. Pichkah← F. Christensen

90+1'

D. Salihović← Y. Kalley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFIFK

Overview

42%Possession58%

6Total Shots13

0.95Expected Goals (xG)1.53

0Corners3

13Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots13

3On Target3

1Off Target5

2Blocked5

5Inside Box8

1Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

416Total Passes560

332Accurate Passes469

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1