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IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken — Allsvenskan 2018

IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
BK Hacken
BK Hacken
9/1/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 21PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

IFK Norrkoping42%
×Draw25%
BK Hacken33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Norrkoping
1.51
BK Hacken
1.33

IFK Norrkoping creates 14% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 126 away

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping
1.67
BK Hacken
1.39

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping
1.27
BK Hacken
1.35

finishing

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par
BK Hacken+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

BK Hacken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw
67%
IFK Norrkoping or BK Hacken
75%
Draw or BK Hacken
58%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
20%
BK Hacken wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
78%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
44%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
19%
BK Hacken 1+ goals
74%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
38%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
55%
BK Hacken (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 121 matches

BK Hacken away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.35 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.67 + BK Hacken defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.51

BK Hacken attack 1.39 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more
42%
level
25%
BK Hacken scores more
33%

IFK Norrkoping at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: IFK Norrkoping 3–3 BK Hacken

IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken drew 3-3 in Allsvenskan on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at PlatinumCars Arena in Norrköping.