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BK Hacken vs IFK Norrkoping — Svenska Cupen 2019

BK Hacken
BK Hackenadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
3/16/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Semi-finalsBravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

BK Hacken43%
×Draw22%
IFK Norrkoping35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BK Hacken
1.93
IFK Norrkoping
1.71

BK Hacken creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

BK Hacken
2.50
IFK Norrkoping
2.85

allows per match

BK Hacken
0.56
IFK Norrkoping
1.35

finishing

BK Hacken+0.00on par
IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

IFK Norrkoping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw
65%
BK Hacken or IFK Norrkoping
78%
Draw or IFK Norrkoping
57%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+
24%
IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals
85%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
57%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
30%
IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
82%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
51%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)
56%
IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 2.85, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 2.50 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.93

IFK Norrkoping attack 2.85 + BK Hacken defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

BK Hacken scores more
43%
level
22%
IFK Norrkoping scores more
35%

BK Hacken at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BK Hacken vs IFK Norrkoping

BK Hacken beat IFK Norrkoping 3-1 in Svenska Cupen on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.