BK Hacken 1–2 IFK Norrkoping: Result & Stats

BK Hacken

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

IFK Norrkoping

4/28/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 6Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

BK Hacken50%

×Draw23%

IFK Norrkoping27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BK HackenExpected goals in this matchIFK Norrkoping

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.33

BK Hacken

1.89

IFK Norrkoping

1.33

BK Hacken creates 42% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 121 away

2.20

creates per match

1.40

1.27

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

BK Hacken

2.20

IFK Norrkoping

1.40

allows per match

BK Hacken

1.27

IFK Norrkoping

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BK Hacken+0.00on par

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

IFK Norrkoping →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw

73%

BK Hacken or IFK Norrkoping

77%

Draw or IFK Norrkoping

50%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+

28%

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals

85%

BK Hacken 2+ goals

56%

BK Hacken 3+ goals

29%

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

74%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

38%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)

65%

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.27 · 126 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.57 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 2.20 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.89

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.40 + BK Hacken defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

BK Hacken scores more

50%

level

23%

IFK Norrkoping scores more

27%

BK Hacken at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff