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IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna — Allsvenskan 2026

IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
E. Alladoh 56'
9/21/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 24Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

IFK Goteborg37%
×Draw27%
IF Brommapojkarna37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Goteborg
1.29
IF Brommapojkarna
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

creates per match

IFK Goteborg
1.21
IF Brommapojkarna
1.42

allows per match

IFK Goteborg
1.17
IF Brommapojkarna
1.38

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par
IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw
63%
IFK Goteborg or IF Brommapojkarna
73%
Draw or IF Brommapojkarna
63%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
16%
IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
72%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
37%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
14%
IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
72%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
37%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
50%
IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.21 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.42 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more
37%
level
27%
IF Brommapojkarna scores more
37%

IFK Goteborg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
O. ZandenIF BrommapojkarnaIF Brommapojkarna · D
8.3

Match Events

15'
Rasmus Örqvist
46'
S. Ngouali← K. Barslund
56'
E. Alladoh↳ R. Orqvist
59'
S. Clemmensen← S. Alioum
59'
B. Brantlind← R. Lundqvist
64'
D. Irandust← I. Camara
79'
I. Ssewankambo← R. Orqvist
86'
Kolbeinn Thordarson
86'
Serge-Junior Martinsson Ngouali
87'
N. Bahoui← L. Bjorklund
88'
E. Bjorkander← L. Arrhov

Possession

73%IFK

Shots

17IFK

Pass accuracy

56%IFK

Statistics

IFKIF
Overview
73%Possession27%
17Total Shots11
0.99Expected Goals (xG)1.05
10Corners4
9Fouls17
Shots
17Total Shots11
2On Target6
9Off Target3
6Blocked2
13Inside Box8
4Outside Box3
Passing
73%Possession27%
650Total Passes256
548Accurate Passes166
84%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls17
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides4

Match Recap: IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna

IF Brommapojkarna beat IFK Goteborg 1-0 in Allsvenskan on September 21, 2025.

Goals: E. Alladoh (56').

IFK Goteborg controlled possession (73%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Gothenburg.