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IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg — Allsvenskan 2026

IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
A. Jakobsen 63' (pen)
S. Clemmensen 90'
K. Thordarson 42', 24'
6/1/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 12Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna34%
×Draw23%
IFK Goteborg43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Brommapojkarna
1.48
IFK Goteborg
1.69

IFK Goteborg creates 14% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 26 away

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna
1.30
IFK Goteborg
1.42

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna
1.96
IFK Goteborg
1.65

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par
IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

IFK Goteborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw
57%
IF Brommapojkarna or IFK Goteborg
77%
Draw or IFK Goteborg
66%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
16%
IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
77%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
43%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
19%
IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
82%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
50%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
44%
IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.30 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

IFK Goteborg attack 1.42 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more
34%
level
23%
IFK Goteborg scores more
43%

IFK Goteborg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
T. HeintzIFK GoteborgIFK Goteborg · F
7.6

Match Events

8'
Ezekiel Alladoh
24'
K. Thordarson↳ T. Heintz
27'
Kolbeinn Thordarson
34'
Nabil Bahoui
39'
Gustav Svensson
42'
K. Thordarson↳ E. Markovic
46'
A. Jakobsen← E. Alladoh
46'
F. Christensen← K. Barslund
46'
A. Carlen← K. Thordarson
53'
A. Kurochkin← V. Lind
59'
Even Hovland
60'
A. Trondsen← N. Tolf
63'
A. JakobsenPenalty
70'
W. Odefalk← D. Irandust
70'
S. Clemmensen← I. Jagne
70'
T. Santos← E. Markovic
75'
K. Sever← K. Ackermann
81'
Felix Eriksson
84'
Adam Carlén
88'
L. Carlstrand← F. Eriksson
90+10'
Alex Timossi Andersson
90+10'
Anton Kurochkin
90+10'
Tobias Heintz
90'
S. Clemmensen↳ T. Heintz

Possession

43%IF

Shots

10IF

Pass accuracy

49%IF

Statistics

IFIFK
Overview
43%Possession57%
10Total Shots14
1.94Expected Goals (xG)2.14
3Corners3
21Fouls23
Shots
10Total Shots14
2On Target5
6Off Target6
2Blocked3
9Inside Box8
1Outside Box6
Passing
43%Possession57%
335Total Passes460
263Accurate Passes374
79%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
21Fouls23
5Yellow Cards5
2Offsides2

Allsvenskan: IF Brommapojkarna 1–3 IFK Goteborg

IFK Goteborg beat IF Brommapojkarna 3-1 in Allsvenskan on June 1, 2025.

Goals: K. Thordarson (24', 42'), A. Jakobsen (63' pen), S. Clemmensen (90').

IFK Goteborg controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Grimsta IP in Stockholm.