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IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna — Allsvenskan 2026

IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
A. Muçolli 62' (pen)
9/16/2023AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 23Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

IFK Goteborg37%
×Draw27%
IF Brommapojkarna37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Goteborg
1.29
IF Brommapojkarna
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

creates per match

IFK Goteborg
1.21
IF Brommapojkarna
1.42

allows per match

IFK Goteborg
1.17
IF Brommapojkarna
1.38

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par
IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw
63%
IFK Goteborg or IF Brommapojkarna
73%
Draw or IF Brommapojkarna
63%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
16%
IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
72%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
37%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
14%
IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
72%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
37%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
50%
IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.21 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.42 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more
37%
level
27%
IF Brommapojkarna scores more
37%

IFK Goteborg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
K. ÞórðarsonIFK GoteborgIFK Goteborg · M
7.9

Match Events

46'
T. Waker← W. Odefalk
46'
N. Vasić← G. Sandberg Magnusson
59'
H. Carneil← L. Kåhed
61'
Filip Sidklev
62'
A. MuçolliPenalty
79'
O. Pettersson← T. Waker
79'
L. Zuta← L. Fritzson
86'
V. Tyren← A. Selmani
90+3'
S. Eriksson← A. Muçolli
90+3'
A. Salaou← K. Þórðarson

Possession

45%IFK

Shots

25IFK

Pass accuracy

48%IFK

Statistics

IFKIF
Overview
45%Possession55%
25Total Shots6
2.19Expected Goals (xG)0.41
11Corners5
17Fouls15
Shots
25Total Shots6
8On Target1
11Off Target3
6Blocked2
11Inside Box4
14Outside Box2
Passing
45%Possession55%
327Total Passes415
243Accurate Passes326
74%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
17Fouls15
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna

IFK Goteborg beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-0 in Allsvenskan on September 16, 2023.

Goals: A. Muçolli (62' pen).

IF Brommapojkarna controlled possession (55%) and registered 6 shots to 25.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Göteborg.