IFK Goteborg 1–2 Hammarby FF: Result & Stats

IFK Goteborg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hammarby FF

M. Fenger 81'

P. Abraham 61', 3'

10/5/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 26Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

IFK Goteborg30%

×Draw26%

Hammarby FF44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK GoteborgExpected goals in this matchHammarby FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.44

IFK Goteborg

1.14

Hammarby FF

1.44

Hammarby FF creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.27

creates per match

1.18

1.69

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

IFK Goteborg

1.27

Hammarby FF

1.18

allows per match

IFK Goteborg

1.69

Hammarby FF

1.00

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

IFK Goteborg-0.14scores less

Hammarby FF-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Hammarby FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw

56%

IFK Goteborg or Hammarby FF

74%

Draw or Hammarby FF

70%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

12%

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

68%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

32%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

11%

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

76%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

42%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

41%

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.69 · 8 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.27 + Hammarby FF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Hammarby FF attack 1.18 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more

30%

level

26%

Hammarby FF scores more

44%

Hammarby FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

P. Abraham

Hammarby FF · F

8.9

Match Events

3'

P. Abraham↳ A. Lahdo

60'

B. Brantlind← S. Clemmensen

61'

P. Abraham↳ O. Okeke

72'

M. Madjed← O. Okeke

77'

L. Carlstrand← S. Alioum

78'

O. Johansson← A. Lahdo

81'

M. Fenger↳ A. Erlingmark

85'

Tobias Heintz

85'

R. Yeboah← G. Svensson

89'

S. Strand← P. Abraham

90+2'

Kolbeinn Thordarson

90'

J. Ortmark← T. Tekie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKHammarby

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots17

1.19Expected Goals (xG)2.72

6Corners9

14Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots17

2On Target9

3Off Target7

4Blocked1

6Inside Box12

3Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

410Total Passes404

303Accurate Passes303

74%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0