IFK Goteborg 0–1 Hammarby FF: Result & Stats

IFK Goteborg

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hammarby FF

1 J. Erabi 90+11'

9/1/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 21Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

IFK Goteborg28%

×Draw26%

Hammarby FF46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK GoteborgExpected goals in this matchHammarby FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.44

IFK Goteborg

1.06

Hammarby FF

1.44

Hammarby FF creates 36% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.19

creates per match

1.19

1.68

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

IFK Goteborg

1.19

Hammarby FF

1.19

allows per match

IFK Goteborg

1.68

Hammarby FF

0.94

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

IFK Goteborg-0.19scores less

Hammarby FF-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Hammarby FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw

54%

IFK Goteborg or Hammarby FF

74%

Draw or Hammarby FF

72%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

11%

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

65%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

29%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

9%

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

76%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

42%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

38%

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 9 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.94 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.19 + Hammarby FF defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Hammarby FF attack 1.19 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more

28%

level

26%

Hammarby FF scores more

46%

Hammarby FF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

P. Vagić

Hammarby FF · D

7.7

Match Events

55'

S. Strand← I. Fofana

56'

Nikolai Baden Frederiksen

56'

Shaquille Pinas

59'

Fredrik Hammar

64'

L. Skjellerup← N. Frederiksen

65'

G. Norlin← D. Kruse

73'

August Erlingmark

73'

Bazoumana Touré

76'

A. Carlén← A. Trondsen

80'

Montader Madjed← B. Touré

81'

Simon Strand

83'

H. Carneil← P. Abraham

86'

Kolbeinn Thordarson

87'

Hussein Carneil

88'

D. Teah← O. Johansson Schellhas

89'

M. Fenger← F. Hammar

90+2'

Jonas Bager

90+11'

1 J. Erabi↳ Montader Madjed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKHammarby

Overview

37%Possession63%

6Total Shots16

0.51Expected Goals (xG)1.60

3Corners6

18Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots16

0On Target3

4Off Target6

2Blocked7

2Inside Box8

4Outside Box8

Passing

37%Possession63%

260Total Passes438

184Accurate Passes367

71%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls11

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2