Hammarby FF 4–0 IFK Goteborg: Result & Stats

Hammarby FF

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

IFK Goteborg

S. Strand 85'

N. Besara 73'

J. Erabi 42'

M. Karlsson 21'

3/30/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 13Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Hammarby FF55%

×Draw24%

IFK Goteborg21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammarby FFExpected goals in this matchIFK Goteborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.91

Hammarby FF

1.66

IFK Goteborg

0.91

Hammarby FF creates 82% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.54

creates per match

1.16

0.65

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Hammarby FF

1.54

IFK Goteborg

1.16

allows per match

Hammarby FF

0.65

IFK Goteborg

1.78

+0.96scores more than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.96scores more

IFK Goteborg+0.24scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

IFK Goteborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw

79%

Hammarby FF or IFK Goteborg

76%

Draw or IFK Goteborg

45%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

30%

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

81%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

49%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

23%

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

60%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

23%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

73%

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.65 · 8 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.78 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 1.54 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

IFK Goteborg attack 1.16 + Hammarby FF defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hammarby FF scores more

55%

level

24%

IFK Goteborg scores more

21%

Hammarby FF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

N. Besara

Hammarby FF · M

9.0

Match Events

21'

M. Karlsson

39'

August Erlingmark

42'

J. Erabi↳ S. Tounekti

45+2'

Noah Tolf

46'

S. Clemmensen← E. Markovic

46'

K. Thordarson← I. Jagne

46'

T. Santos← F. Eriksson

52'

Shaquille Pinas

60'

Tobias Heintz

73'

N. Besara↳ T. Tekie

74'

A. Boudah← P. Abraham

80'

S. Strand← S. Tounekti

83'

83'

85'

90+2'

90+1'

90+1'

W. Lindberg← T. Tekie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HammarbyIFK

Overview

56%Possession44%

21Total Shots5

2.61Expected Goals (xG)0.23

8Corners3

11Fouls15

Shots

21Total Shots5

10On Target1

2Off Target2

9Blocked2

12Inside Box2

9Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

447Total Passes344

364Accurate Passes254

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

6Offsides1