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IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall — Svenska Cupen 2019

IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
2/28/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Valhalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Goteborg61%
×Draw21%
GIF Sundsvall18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Goteborg
2.02
GIF Sundsvall
1.01

IFK Goteborg creates 100% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

creates per match

IFK Goteborg
1.85
GIF Sundsvall
1.18

allows per match

IFK Goteborg
0.85
GIF Sundsvall
2.18

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par
GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

GIF Sundsvall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw
82%
IFK Goteborg or GIF Sundsvall
79%
Draw or GIF Sundsvall
39%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
37%
GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
87%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
60%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
33%
GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
64%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
27%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
77%
GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

GIF Sundsvall away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.85 + GIF Sundsvall defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.02

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.18 + IFK Goteborg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more
61%
level
21%
GIF Sundsvall scores more
18%

IFK Goteborg at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall

IFK Goteborg and GIF Sundsvall drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Valhalla IP in Göteborg.