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GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Goteborg — Allsvenskan 2026

GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
9/1/2019AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 22NP3 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

GIF Sundsvall36%
×Draw24%
IFK Goteborg39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GIF Sundsvall
1.46
IFK Goteborg
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 128 away

creates per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.40
IFK Goteborg
1.28

allows per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.78
IFK Goteborg
1.52

finishing

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par
IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIF Sundsvall ↓

IFK Goteborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

GIF Sundsvall or draw
61%
GIF Sundsvall or IFK Goteborg
76%
Draw or IFK Goteborg
64%

Winning margin

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
17%
IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
77%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
43%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
18%
IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
78%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
45%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
48%
IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIF Sundsvall at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.52 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.40 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

IFK Goteborg attack 1.28 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

GIF Sundsvall scores more
36%
level
24%
IFK Goteborg scores more
39%

IFK Goteborg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Goteborg

IFK Goteborg beat GIF Sundsvall 2-0 in Allsvenskan on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at NP3 Arena in Sundsvall.