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IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall — Allsvenskan 2026

IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
7/6/2019AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 14Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

IFK Goteborg49%
×Draw25%
GIF Sundsvall26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Goteborg
1.58
GIF Sundsvall
1.08

IFK Goteborg creates 46% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 45 away

creates per match

IFK Goteborg
1.28
GIF Sundsvall
0.96

allows per match

IFK Goteborg
1.20
GIF Sundsvall
1.89

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par
GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

GIF Sundsvall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw
74%
IFK Goteborg or GIF Sundsvall
75%
Draw or GIF Sundsvall
51%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
25%
GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
79%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
47%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
21%
GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
66%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
29%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
65%
GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.20 · 127 matches

GIF Sundsvall away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.28 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.58

GIF Sundsvall attack 0.96 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more
49%
level
25%
GIF Sundsvall scores more
26%

IFK Goteborg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall

IFK Goteborg beat GIF Sundsvall 2-1 in Allsvenskan on July 6, 2019.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Gothenburg.