IF Karlstad 0–1 Forward: Result & Stats

IF Karlstad

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Forward

8/9/2022

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 17Tingvalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

IF Karlstad54%

×Draw22%

Forward24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF KarlstadExpected goals in this matchForward

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.26

IF Karlstad

1.97

Forward

1.26

IF Karlstad creates 56% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 32 away

1.97

creates per match

1.16

1.36

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

IF Karlstad

1.97

Forward

1.16

allows per match

IF Karlstad

1.36

Forward

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IF Karlstad+0.00on par

Forward+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Karlstad ↓

Forward →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

IF Karlstad or draw

76%

IF Karlstad or Forward

78%

Draw or Forward

46%

Winning margin

IF Karlstad wins by 2+

31%

Forward wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

IF Karlstad 1+ goals

86%

IF Karlstad 2+ goals

58%

IF Karlstad 3+ goals

31%

Forward 1+ goals

72%

Forward 2+ goals

36%

Forward 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

IF Karlstad (draw refunded)

69%

Forward (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Karlstad at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.36 · 97 matches

Forward away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Karlstad attack 1.97 + Forward defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.97

Forward attack 1.16 + IF Karlstad defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

IF Karlstad scores more

54%

level

22%

Forward scores more

24%

IF Karlstad at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "IF Karlstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff