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Forward vs IF Karlstad — Ettan - Norra 2019

Forward
Forward
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
IF Karlstad
IF Karlstad
5/25/2022Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 9Trängens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Forward27%
×Draw23%
IF Karlstad50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forward
1.25
IF Karlstad
1.79

IF Karlstad creates 43% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 97 away

creates per match

Forward
1.09
IF Karlstad
1.56

allows per match

Forward
2.03
IF Karlstad
1.41

finishing

Forward+0.00on par
IF Karlstad+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forward ↓

IF Karlstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Forward or draw
50%
Forward or IF Karlstad
77%
Draw or IF Karlstad
73%

Winning margin

Forward wins by 2+
11%
IF Karlstad wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Forward 1+ goals
71%
Forward 2+ goals
36%
Forward 3+ goals
13%
IF Karlstad 1+ goals
83%
IF Karlstad 2+ goals
53%
IF Karlstad 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Forward (draw refunded)
35%
IF Karlstad (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forward at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.03 · 32 matches

IF Karlstad away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forward attack 1.09 + IF Karlstad defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

IF Karlstad attack 1.56 + Forward defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Forward scores more
27%
level
23%
IF Karlstad scores more
50%

IF Karlstad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "IF Karlstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forward vs IF Karlstad

IF Karlstad beat Forward 1-0 in Ettan - Norra on May 25, 2022.

The match was played at Trängens IP in Örebro.