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Forward vs IF Karlstad — Svenska Cupen 2019

Forward
Forward
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
IF Karlstad
IF Karlstad
7/31/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundTrängens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Forward5%
×Draw13%
IF Karlstad82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forward
0.52
IF Karlstad
2.62

IF Karlstad creates 404% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Forward
0.33
IF Karlstad
2.57

allows per match

Forward
2.67
IF Karlstad
0.71

finishing

Forward+0.00on par
IF Karlstad+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forward ↓

IF Karlstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–112%
0–215%
0–313%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Forward or draw
18%
Forward or IF Karlstad
87%
Draw or IF Karlstad
95%

Winning margin

Forward wins by 2+
1%
IF Karlstad wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Forward 1+ goals
41%
Forward 2+ goals
10%
Forward 3+ goals
2%
IF Karlstad 1+ goals
93%
IF Karlstad 2+ goals
73%
IF Karlstad 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Forward (draw refunded)
6%
IF Karlstad (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forward at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

IF Karlstad away — creates 2.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forward attack 0.33 + IF Karlstad defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.52

IF Karlstad attack 2.57 + Forward defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Forward scores more
5%
level
13%
IF Karlstad scores more
82%

IF Karlstad at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "IF Karlstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Forward 1–0 IF Karlstad

Forward beat IF Karlstad 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on July 31, 2020.

The match was played at Trängens IP in Örebro.