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IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
3/6/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IF Elfsborg35%
×Draw22%
Falkenbergs FF43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Elfsborg
1.76
Falkenbergs FF
1.96

Falkenbergs FF creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

IF Elfsborg
2.23
Falkenbergs FF
3.00

allows per match

IF Elfsborg
0.92
Falkenbergs FF
1.29

finishing

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par
Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Elfsborg ↓

Falkenbergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

IF Elfsborg or draw
57%
IF Elfsborg or Falkenbergs FF
78%
Draw or Falkenbergs FF
65%

Winning margin

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
18%
Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
83%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
52%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
26%
Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
86%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
58%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
45%
Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Elfsborg at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Elfsborg attack 2.23 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.76

Falkenbergs FF attack 3.00 + IF Elfsborg defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

IF Elfsborg scores more
35%
level
22%
Falkenbergs FF scores more
43%

Falkenbergs FF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: IF Elfsborg 3–2 Falkenbergs FF

IF Elfsborg beat Falkenbergs FF 3-2 in Svenska Cupen on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Borås.