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IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF — Allsvenskan 2026

IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
10/6/2019AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 27Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IF Elfsborg60%
×Draw21%
Falkenbergs FF19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Elfsborg
2.04
Falkenbergs FF
1.04

IF Elfsborg creates 96% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 30 away

creates per match

IF Elfsborg
1.80
Falkenbergs FF
0.93

allows per match

IF Elfsborg
1.16
Falkenbergs FF
2.27

finishing

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par
Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Elfsborg ↓

Falkenbergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

IF Elfsborg or draw
81%
IF Elfsborg or Falkenbergs FF
79%
Draw or Falkenbergs FF
40%

Winning margin

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
37%
Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
87%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
60%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
33%
Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
65%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
28%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
76%
Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Elfsborg at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 128 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Elfsborg attack 1.80 + Falkenbergs FF defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.04

Falkenbergs FF attack 0.93 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

IF Elfsborg scores more
60%
level
21%
Falkenbergs FF scores more
19%

IF Elfsborg at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF

IF Elfsborg beat Falkenbergs FF 4-0 in Allsvenskan on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Boras.