Falkenbergs FF 2–1 IF Elfsborg: Result & Stats

Falkenbergs FF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

IF Elfsborg

6/29/2019

Allsvenskan · Round 13Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Falkenbergs FF31%

×Draw25%

IF Elfsborg43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Falkenbergs FFExpected goals in this matchIF Elfsborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.49

Falkenbergs FF

1.23

IF Elfsborg

1.49

IF Elfsborg creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 127 away

1.00

creates per match

1.38

1.60

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.00

IF Elfsborg

1.38

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.60

IF Elfsborg

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

IF Elfsborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw

57%

Falkenbergs FF or IF Elfsborg

75%

Draw or IF Elfsborg

69%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

13%

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

71%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

35%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

13%

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals

77%

IF Elfsborg 2+ goals

44%

IF Elfsborg 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

42%

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.45 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.00 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

IF Elfsborg attack 1.38 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more

31%

level

25%

IF Elfsborg scores more

43%

IF Elfsborg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff