IF Elfsborg 1–2 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

IF Elfsborg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Degerfors IF

P. Frick 76'

D. Vukojevic 36', 8'

9/27/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 25Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

IF Elfsborg40%

×Draw25%

Degerfors IF34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF ElfsborgExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.33

IF Elfsborg

1.46

Degerfors IF

1.33

IF Elfsborg creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

1.40

creates per match

1.28

1.39

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

IF Elfsborg

1.40

Degerfors IF

1.28

allows per match

IF Elfsborg

1.39

Degerfors IF

1.51

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

IF Elfsborg+0.10scores more

Degerfors IF-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Elfsborg ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

IF Elfsborg or draw

66%

IF Elfsborg or Degerfors IF

75%

Draw or Degerfors IF

60%

Winning margin

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+

19%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals

77%

IF Elfsborg 2+ goals

43%

IF Elfsborg 3+ goals

18%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

74%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

38%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)

54%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Elfsborg at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.39 · 12 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.51 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Elfsborg attack 1.40 + Degerfors IF defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Degerfors IF attack 1.28 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IF Elfsborg scores more

40%

level

25%

Degerfors IF scores more

34%

IF Elfsborg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

D. Vukojevic

Degerfors IF · F

8.0

Match Events

8'

D. Vukojevic↳ N. Girmai

36'

D. Vukojevic↳ S. Haarala

44'

Daniel Sundgren

46'

T. Silverholt← J. Thomasen

50'

Wenderson

55'

Niklas Hult

60'

A. Hellemaa← Wenderson

60'

P. Frick← L. Ostman

60'

A. Sigurpalsson← J. Larsson

69'

S. Ohlsson← D. Vukojevic

69'

R. Omorowa← A. Taranis

72'

F. Ihler← A. Zeneli

76'

P. Frick

82'

E. Barsoum← S. Haarala

82'

B. Morgado← D. Sundgren

89'

N. Moro← M. Rafferty

90+7'

Kazper Karlsson

90+11'

W. Jakobsson← M. Igonen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFDegerfors

Overview

60%Possession40%

15Total Shots13

2.30Expected Goals (xG)1.61

10Corners2

11Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots13

3On Target5

7Off Target4

5Blocked4

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box6

Passing

60%Possession40%

477Total Passes330

388Accurate Passes245

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Match Recap: IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF

Degerfors IF beat IF Elfsborg 2-1 in Allsvenskan on September 27, 2025.

Goals: D. Vukojevic (8', 36'), P. Frick (76').

IF Elfsborg controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Borås.

IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF