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Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg — Allsvenskan 2026

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
J. Magnusson 52'
4/17/2026AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 3Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Degerfors IF33%
×Draw26%
IF Elfsborg41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
1.25
IF Elfsborg
1.43

IF Elfsborg creates 14% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 126 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
1.06
IF Elfsborg
1.37

allows per match

Degerfors IF
1.48
IF Elfsborg
1.44

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par
IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

IF Elfsborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
59%
Degerfors IF or IF Elfsborg
74%
Draw or IF Elfsborg
67%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
14%
IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
71%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
36%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
13%
IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
76%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
42%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
44%
IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.48 · 67 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.44 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.06 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

IF Elfsborg attack 1.37 + Degerfors IF defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
33%
level
26%
IF Elfsborg scores more
41%

IF Elfsborg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
T. IsherwoodIF ElfsborgIF Elfsborg · D
8.3

Match Events

24'
Kazper Karlsson
32'
Ludvig Fritzson
37'
J. Beck← A. Zeneli
48'
Juhani Pikkarainen
51'
Sebastian Ohlsson
52'
J. Magnusson
54'
Marcus Rafferty
62'
Taylor Silverholt
63'
A. Sigurpalsson← T. Silverholt
63'
V. Okeke← N. Hult
65'
B. Hussein← K. Karlsson
75'
L. Ostman← P. Frick
76'
G. Yiriyon← D. Vukojevic
76'
R. Mohammed← S. Hedlund
85'
Julius Beck
87'
O. Leonardsson← E. Barsoum
90+5'
Ari Sigurpálsson

Possession

66%Degerfors

Shots

11Degerfors

Pass accuracy

56%Degerfors

Statistics

DegerforsIF
Overview
66%Possession34%
11Total Shots6
1.03Expected Goals (xG)0.48
7Corners1
15Fouls17
Shots
11Total Shots6
2On Target3
3Off Target2
6Blocked1
5Inside Box2
6Outside Box4
Passing
66%Possession34%
478Total Passes251
391Accurate Passes164
82%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls17
5Yellow Cards3
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg

IF Elfsborg beat Degerfors IF 1-0 in Allsvenskan on April 17, 2026.

Goals: J. Magnusson (52').

Degerfors IF controlled possession (66%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stora Valla in Degerfors.