Degerfors IF 0–1 IF Elfsborg: Result & Stats

Degerfors IF

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

IF Elfsborg

S. Hedlund 52' (pen)

4/19/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 4Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Degerfors IF33%

×Draw26%

IF Elfsborg41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Degerfors IFExpected goals in this matchIF Elfsborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.43

Degerfors IF

1.25

IF Elfsborg

1.43

IF Elfsborg creates 14% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 126 away

1.06

creates per match

1.37

1.48

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Degerfors IF

1.06

IF Elfsborg

1.37

allows per match

Degerfors IF

1.48

IF Elfsborg

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

IF Elfsborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw

59%

Degerfors IF or IF Elfsborg

74%

Draw or IF Elfsborg

67%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

14%

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

71%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

36%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

13%

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals

76%

IF Elfsborg 2+ goals

42%

IF Elfsborg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

44%

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.48 · 67 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.44 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.06 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

IF Elfsborg attack 1.37 + Degerfors IF defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Degerfors IF scores more

33%

level

26%

IF Elfsborg scores more

41%

IF Elfsborg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

I. Pettersson

IF Elfsborg · G

8.3

Match Events

25'

Sebastian Holmén

36'

Juhani Pikkarainen

45+3'

Nahom Girmai

52'

S. HedlundPenalty

58'

Niklas Hult

59'

N. Moro← J. Pikkarainen

59'

Z. Salifu← M. Rafferty

63'

F. Ihler← T. Silverholt

69'

M. Lundgren← E. Pihlstrom

72'

D. Granli← S. Holmen

72'

P. Frick← A. Sigurpalsson

72'

85'

85'

90+5'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DegerforsIF

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots14

1.71Expected Goals (xG)3.03

5Corners5

13Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots14

4On Target5

7Off Target3

5Blocked6

9Inside Box11

7Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

446Total Passes338

390Accurate Passes270

87%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg

IF Elfsborg beat Degerfors IF 1-0 in Allsvenskan on April 19, 2025.

Goals: S. Hedlund (52' pen).

Degerfors IF controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stora Valla in Degerfors.

Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg