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IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF — Allsvenskan 2026

IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
11/5/2023AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 29Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

IF Elfsborg46%
×Draw24%
Degerfors IF30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Elfsborg
1.66
Degerfors IF
1.31

IF Elfsborg creates 27% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

IF Elfsborg
1.43
Degerfors IF
1.22

allows per match

IF Elfsborg
1.41
Degerfors IF
1.89

finishing

IF Elfsborg-0.05on par
Degerfors IF-0.22scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Elfsborg ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

IF Elfsborg or draw
70%
IF Elfsborg or Degerfors IF
76%
Draw or Degerfors IF
54%

Winning margin

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
24%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
81%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
49%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
23%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
73%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
38%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
60%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Elfsborg at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 13 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.89 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Elfsborg attack 1.43 + Degerfors IF defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.66

Degerfors IF attack 1.22 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

IF Elfsborg scores more
46%
level
24%
Degerfors IF scores more
30%

IF Elfsborg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF

IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF drew 2-2 in Allsvenskan on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Borås.