IF Elfsborg 5–1 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

IF Elfsborg

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Degerfors IF

3/6/2022

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IF Elfsborg43%

×Draw22%

Degerfors IF35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF ElfsborgExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.75

IF Elfsborg

1.94

Degerfors IF

1.75

IF Elfsborg creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

2.23

creates per match

2.59

0.92

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

IF Elfsborg

2.23

Degerfors IF

2.59

allows per match

IF Elfsborg

0.92

Degerfors IF

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Elfsborg ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

IF Elfsborg or draw

65%

IF Elfsborg or Degerfors IF

78%

Draw or Degerfors IF

57%

Winning margin

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+

23%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals

86%

IF Elfsborg 2+ goals

58%

IF Elfsborg 3+ goals

30%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

83%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

52%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)

55%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Elfsborg at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Elfsborg attack 2.23 + Degerfors IF defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.94

Degerfors IF attack 2.59 + IF Elfsborg defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

IF Elfsborg scores more

43%

level

22%

Degerfors IF scores more

35%

IF Elfsborg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff