IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1–0 Fjolnir: Result & Stats

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fjolnir

6/18/2021

1. Deild · Round 7Hásteinsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar46%

×Draw23%

Fjolnir31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IBV VestmannaeyjarExpected goals in this matchFjolnir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.42

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.76

Fjolnir

1.42

IBV Vestmannaeyjar creates 24% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 57 away

1.91

creates per match

1.70

1.13

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.91

Fjolnir

1.70

allows per match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.13

Fjolnir

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IBV Vestmannaeyjar ↓

Fjolnir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

IBV Vestmannaeyjar or draw

69%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar or Fjolnir

77%

Draw or Fjolnir

54%

Winning margin

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+

24%

Fjolnir wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals

83%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals

52%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals

26%

Fjolnir 1+ goals

76%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

41%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)

59%

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.61 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 1.91 + Fjolnir defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.76

Fjolnir attack 1.70 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more

46%

level

23%

Fjolnir scores more

31%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "IBV Vestmannaeyjar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff