Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Fjolnir — Cup 2026

IBV Vestmannaeyjar
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fjolnir
Fjolnir
5/29/2019CupCup · 8th FinalsHásteinsvöllur (Vestmannaeyjar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar41%
×Draw20%
Fjolnir39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.17
Fjolnir
2.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.89
Fjolnir
3.22

allows per match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
Fjolnir
1.44

finishing

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par
Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IBV Vestmannaeyjar ↓

Fjolnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

IBV Vestmannaeyjar or draw
61%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar or Fjolnir
80%
Draw or Fjolnir
59%

Winning margin

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+
23%
Fjolnir wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals
89%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals
64%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals
36%
Fjolnir 1+ goals
88%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
62%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)
51%
Fjolnir (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at home — creates 2.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 3.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 2.89 + Fjolnir defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.17

Fjolnir attack 3.22 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more
41%
level
20%
Fjolnir scores more
39%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IBV Vestmannaeyjar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Fjolnir

IBV Vestmannaeyjar beat Fjolnir 2-0 in Cup on May 29, 2019.

The match was played at Hásteinsvöllur (Vestmannaeyjar).