Fjolnir 1–5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar: Result & Stats

Fjolnir

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

8/9/2024

1. Deild · Round 16Extra völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Fjolnir36%

×Draw23%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FjolnirExpected goals in this matchIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.75

Fjolnir

1.64

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 32 away

2.02

creates per match

2.03

1.47

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Fjolnir

2.02

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

2.03

allows per match

Fjolnir

1.47

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw

59%

Fjolnir or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

77%

Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

64%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+

18%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals

81%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

49%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

23%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals

83%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals

52%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

47%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.47 · 57 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 2.02 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.64

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 2.03 + Fjolnir defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fjolnir scores more

36%

level

23%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more

41%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IBV Vestmannaeyjar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff