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Ibiza vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ibiza
Ibiza
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
9/2/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Estadio Can Misses – Power Electronic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ibiza54%
×Draw26%
Atlético Baleares21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibiza
1.53
Atlético Baleares
0.84

Ibiza creates 82% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Ibiza
1.65
Atlético Baleares
0.82

allows per match

Ibiza
0.86
Atlético Baleares
1.42

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw
79%
Ibiza or Atlético Baleares
74%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
46%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+
28%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals
78%
Ibiza 2+ goals
45%
Ibiza 3+ goals
20%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
57%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
21%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)
72%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.65 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

Atlético Baleares attack 0.82 + Ibiza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ibiza scores more
54%
level
26%
Atlético Baleares scores more
21%

Ibiza at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ibiza vs Atlético Baleares

Ibiza beat Atlético Baleares 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Can Misses – Power Electronic in Ibiza.