Atlético Baleares 0–1 Ibiza: Result & Stats

Atlético Baleares

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ibiza

4/14/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Atlético Baleares38%

×Draw30%

Ibiza33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético BalearesExpected goals in this matchIbiza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.03

Atlético Baleares

1.12

Ibiza

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

1.26

creates per match

1.02

1.04

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Atlético Baleares

1.26

Ibiza

1.02

allows per match

Atlético Baleares

1.04

Ibiza

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Ibiza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Ibiza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw

67%

Atlético Baleares or Ibiza

70%

Draw or Ibiza

62%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

15%

Ibiza wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

67%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

31%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

10%

Ibiza 1+ goals

64%

Ibiza 2+ goals

28%

Ibiza 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

53%

Ibiza (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

Ibiza away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 1.26 + Ibiza defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.12

Ibiza attack 1.02 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more

38%

level

30%

Ibiza scores more

33%

Atlético Baleares at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff