Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ibiza vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ibiza
Ibiza
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
10/20/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ibiza51%
×Draw29%
Atlético Baleares20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibiza
1.28
Atlético Baleares
0.67

Ibiza creates 91% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ibiza
1.71
Atlético Baleares
0.77

allows per match

Ibiza
0.57
Atlético Baleares
0.85

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw
80%
Ibiza or Atlético Baleares
71%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
49%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+
24%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals
72%
Ibiza 2+ goals
37%
Ibiza 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
49%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
15%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)
72%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.71 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.28

Atlético Baleares attack 0.77 + Ibiza defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ibiza scores more
51%
level
29%
Atlético Baleares scores more
20%

Ibiza at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Ibiza 0–1 Atlético Baleares

Atlético Baleares beat Ibiza 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Can Misses in Ibiza.